Bangkok, Economic and Business Forecast Center The University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce assesses that the Thai economy in 2024 is in a downward spiral. Can be seen from the government sector who sets economic policy has lowered its forecast for the Thai economy this year to below 3 percent, but it is still not at a bad level. It is believed that the government will quickly find additional measures. Ready to analyze the export direction in 2024, there are positive factors, especially the economy. and world trade that tends to expand better will push Thai exports to grow at 2.5 percent. Mr. Thanawat Phonwichai, President of the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce and the Advisory Chairman of the Center for Economic and Business Forecasting revealed that in mid-March, the Center is preparing to revise the median estimate of the Thai economy this year again. At this time, it is still maintained at 3 percent. This is due to the main supporting factor in the export sector that will grow at 100 percen t. 2-3 and travel Expect 35-38 million tourists because of the Thai economy. in the downtrend Can be seen from the government sector who sets economic policy has lowered its forecast for the Thai economy this year. Below 3 percent, but not yet bad. This does not include economic stimulus measures from digital wallets. Because exports are seen to shrink from the original forecast, it is therefore necessary for the government to accelerate this year's economic growth to exceed 3 percent, so that it does not have to rely on measures. Digital Wallet In particular, the expansion of policies to stimulate tourism continues. Promote exports to be more prominent Promote local government organizations Accelerate investment in infrastructure Including pushing state enterprises Invest in projects that use domestic raw materials To keep money circulating in the economy While waiting for the spending of budget funds, the latest developments Digital Wallet Measures It will be delayed for another 30 days, expected to start in June. From the month of May It will have less effect on economic expansion as well. In addition, the Center has set the framework for export figures in 2024 to be at 2-3% or a total export value of 290,562 - 293,099 million US dollars. From supporting factors including the trend of the global economy growing, the IMF recently raised its global GDP forecast to 3.1 percent from the previous 2.9 percent, as well as world international trade. It is likely to expand by 3.3 percent, similar to the value of the baht in the first half of the year. There is still a tendency to depreciate. It has a positive effect on the competition. The exchange rate as of February 15, 2024 is expected to average at 36 baht per US dollar. Meanwhile, world inflation has decreased. This will cause interest rates to fall. It is expected that many countries will reduce their policy interest rates. Make the world economy grow well and Thai exports to different countries Returning to expand better, including ASEAN, Japan, the European U nion, including the United States with an export share of 17.1 percent. Exports are still expanding, and the Chinese market, although the economy has not yet recovered well, it is expected that Thailand will export to China to expand. Better than last year But there are still risk factors that need to be monitored from the lingering events in the Red Sea. As a result, freight costs will increase. The Chinese economy has not yet recovered. In addition, the value of the baht tends to strengthen in the second half of the year. However, the top 10 star export products that are expected to be exported in 2024 include refined oil, telephones, equipment and components. Semiconductors, transistors and diodes, fresh and frozen fruit Electrical transformers and components Automobiles, equipment and components Electrical machinery and equipment, electrical circuit boards, wood and wood products and machinery while the top 3 rising products are tractors and special tires. Travel bags and other bags and fresh chilled and frozen chicken In addition, the center also evaluates people's spending. On Makha Bucha Day this year There are 3 long holidays in a row. A survey of people's activities this year found that most of them intended to make merit more than last year. After passing through the Covid situation And it's still a long holiday. It is expected that there will be more than 2,432 million baht in circulation, an increase of 28 percent from the previous year. The intention is to make merit and pay homage to the Buddha. Increased from last year and the highest in history I intend to go to the candlelight procession as much as possible. Spend an average of 292 baht per person, followed by making merit. Spend an average of 677 baht per person, give alms to monks, spend an average of 393 baht per person, release birds - release fish - redeem animals' lives. It is estimated that the average amount spent is 279 baht per person, etc. Source: Thai News Agency
